Vol: 3, Issue: 1 2013

Page: 60-74

Demand Projection of Chemical Fertilizer's Consumption in India: Determinants and Outlook for 2020

Dr Jasbir Singh

Received Date: 2012-12-11

Accepted Date: 2013-01-12

Published Date: 2013-02-11

Chemical fertilizers are key element of modern technology and have played an important role in agricultural production growth in India. However, the demand-supply gap of fertilizer in India has increased in recent times due to dependency on imports. Indian imports, which were about 2 million tons in early part of 2000, has increased to 10.2 million tones consumption of fertilizers in 2008-09. In view of importance of fertilizers in agriculture growth and the possibility of an emerging demand-supply gap, there is a need to forecast future demand. The paper begins with an overview of fertilizer consumption trends and then identifies important determinants of fertilizer demand and develops projects demand scenarios for fertilizers in India in 2020-21. India is the second largest consumer of fertilizers in the world after China, consuming about 26.5 million tones. However, average intensity of fertilizer use in India remains much lower than mostly countries in the world but is highly skewed, with wide inter-regional, inter-state, and inter-district variations. In present study we want to find that how we can fulfill increasing gap between fertilizer consumption demand and supply. We would like to analysis that what is the estimated growth rate of fertilizer consumption in 1915-16 to 2020-21. The paper suggests that in order to ensure self-sufficiency in agricultural production in the country, availability of fertilizers at affordable prices should be prioritized over higher output prices. By 2020, fertilizer demand in the country is projected to increase to about 41.6 million tones and is expected to grow at a faster rate in eastern and southern region compared with north and west.

References

• Bumb, B. (1995), �Global Fertilizer Perspective, 1980-2000: The Challenges in Structural Transformation�, Technical Bulletin T-42. Muscle Shoals, AL: International Fertilizer Development Center.
• Debertin, D. (1986), �Agricultural Production Economics�, New York: McMillan Publishing Company.
• Dholakia, Ravindra H. and Jagdip Majumdar (1995), �Estimation of Price Elasticity of Fertilizer Demand at Macro Level in India�, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economic, 50 (1), 36-46.
• FAO (1998), �Guide to Efficient Plant Nutrition Management�, FAO/AGL Publication, FAO, Rome. Fertilizer Association of India (2010), �Fertilizer Statistics 2009-10 and earlier issues�, The Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi
• GOI (2010), �Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2010 and earlier issues�, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India, New Delhi.
• Hopper, W. (1993), �Indian Agriculture and Fertilizer: An Outsider�s Observations�, Keynote addressto the FAI Seminar on Emerging Scenario in Fertilizer and Agriculture: Global Dimensions, the Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi.
• Kundu, T. R. and D.C. Vashist (1991), �Demand for Intermediate Inputs in Indian Agriculture�, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economic, 46 (2), 152-58.
• Rabobank (2005), �Indian Fertilizer Industry: A Snapshot of Urea and DAP Business�, Rabobank International, F&A Research and Advisory
• Raju, Sunitha. (1989), �Fertilizer Use in Andhra Pradesh: An Analysis of Factors Affecting Consumption�, Artha Vijnana, 31 (4).
• Schumacher, Katja and Jayant Sathaye (1999), �India�s Fertilizer Industry: Productivity and Energy Efficiency�, Energy Analysis Program Environmental Energy Technologies Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720
• Sharma, A. K. (1993), �Sources of Differences in Input Use: The Case of Fertilizer in India�, Journal of Indian School of Political Economy, 5 (2), 320-329.
• Sharma, Vijay Paul (1999), �Domestic Support Commitments under WTO and Their Implicationsfor Indian Agriculture�, FAI Seminar on Maintaining Fertilizer and Food Security in the EmergingWorld Trade Order (invited paper), Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi, December 9-11, 199Sharma, Vijay Paul and Hrima Thaker (2011), �Economic Policy Reforms and Indian Fertilizer Industry�, Allied Publishers, New Delhi.
• Sidhu, D. S. and J.S. Sidhu (1993), �Demand for Fertilizer and Food grains Production in India�, InVidya Sagar (ed.), Fertilizer Pricing: Issues Related to Subsidies, Concept Publishing House, Jaipur, 115-130.
• Subramanian, G. and V. Nirmala (1991), �A Macro Analysis of Fertilizer Demand in India (1966- 67 to 1985-86)�, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 46 (1), 12-19.
• Tomich, T., P. Kilby, and B. Johnson. 1995. Transforming Agrarian Economies: Opportunities Seized, Opportunities Missed. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
• Vijay Paul Sharma, Hrima Thaker April 2011,� Demand for Fertilizer in India: Determinants andOutlook for 2020� INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT AHMEDABAD